Synthetic Controls

Ecuador Results

combine estimates

	Stacking Estimate (95% CI)	SC Estimate (95% CI)	Time trend Estimate (95% CI)	Time trend (no offset) Estimate (95% CI)	STL+PCA Estimate (95% CI)
0	0.92 (0.74, 1.16)	0.89 (0.73, 1.09)	0.92 (0.74, 1.13)	0.99 (0.82, 1.18)	1.03 (0.87, 1.23)
1	1.06 (0.89, 1.29)	1 (0.86, 1.18)	1.13 (0.96, 1.34)	0.86 (0.74, 0.99)	1.04 (0.92, 1.19)
2	0.8 (0.69, 1.14)	1.05 (0.9, 1.2)	1.14 (0.94, 1.36)	0.79 (0.68, 0.91)	0.78 (0.68, 0.89)
3	0.83 (0.72, 1.12)	1 (0.87, 1.17)	0.99 (0.86, 1.14)	0.78 (0.69, 0.88)	0.8 (0.71, 0.9)
4	0.86 (0.72, 0.98)	0.88 (0.8, 1)	0.88 (0.77, 1.01)	0.84 (0.73, 0.98)	0.78 (0.69, 0.88)
5	0.78 (0.6, 0.96)	0.81 (0.67, 0.97)	0.75 (0.62, 0.9)	0.76 (0.62, 0.92)	0.68 (0.57, 0.81)
6	0.85 (0.74, 0.98)	0.85 (0.74, 0.97)	0.73 (0.63, 0.85)	0.72 (0.61, 0.84)	0.76 (0.66, 0.87)
7	0.89 (0.76, 1.05)	0.92 (0.79, 1.06)	0.85 (0.75, 0.97)	0.83 (0.73, 0.95)	0.86 (0.76, 0.98)
8	1 (0.87, 1.14)	1 (0.87, 1.14)	0.92 (0.82, 1.05)	0.89 (0.78, 1.02)	0.96 (0.85, 1.09)
9	0.91 (0.75, 1.14)	0.85 (0.74, 0.97)	0.91 (0.77, 1.08)	0.89 (0.76, 1.04)	1.03 (0.9, 1.17)

Plot of Rate ratios, with size proportional to cross validation weights

Weights for each of the models from cross validation

groups	Synthetic Controls	Time trend	Time trend (no offset)	STL+PCA
0	0.328	0.529	0.000	0.142
1	0.319	0.400	0.000	0.281
2	0.242	0.000	0.000	0.758
3	0.293	0.000	0.000	0.707
4	0.697	0.000	0.000	0.303
5	0.743	0.000	0.000	0.257
6	1.000	0.000	0.000	0.000
7	0.621	0.379	0.000	0.000
8	0.999	0.000	0.001	0.000
9	0.562	0.000	0.000	0.438

Inclusion Probabilities

Group	Greatest Inclusion Variable	Greatest Inclusion Probability	Second Greatest Inclusion Variable	Second Greatest Inclusion Probability	Third Greatest Inclusion Variable	Third Greatest Inclusion Probability
0	cJ20_J22	1.0000000	P05_07	0.6003978	P00_99	0.4445432
1	cJ20_J22	1.0000000	P00_99	0.6282074	ach_noj	0.4434059
2	cJ20_J22	1.0000000	S00_T99	1.0000000	E40_46	0.2252282
3	cJ20_J22	1.0000000	S00_T99	0.9873324	G00_99_SY	0.6026361
4	cJ20_J22	0.9999985	N00_99	0.9998963	C00_D48	0.0703611
5	cJ20_J22	1.0000000	ach_noj	0.5017597	K35	0.2158735
6	cJ20_J22	0.9999999	D50_89	0.5709533	N39	0.5186708
7	E00_99	0.8703107	cJ20_J22	0.8351655	ach_noj	0.1475171
8	ach_noj	0.9922184	cJ20_J22	0.6174294	N39	0.3570180
9	cJ20_J22	1.0000000	ach_noj	0.9643429	P00_99	0.0765863

Weight Sensitivity Analysis

	Estimate (95% CI)	Top Control 1	Inclusion Probability of Control 1	Control 1 Estimate (95% CI)	Top Control 2	Inclusion Probability of Control 2	Control 2 Estimate (95% CI)	Top Control 3	Inclusion Probability of Control 3	Control 3 Estimate (95% CI)
0	0.89 (0.73, 1.09)	cJ20_J22	1	1.18 (0.93, 1.45)	P05_07	0.6	1.12 (0.88, 1.38)	P00_99	0.44	1.14 (0.91, 1.4)
1	1 (0.86, 1.18)	cJ20_J22	1	1.28 (1.08, 1.5)	P00_99	0.63	1.42 (1.21, 1.64)	E00_99	0.1	1.45 (1.23, 1.67)
2	1.05 (0.9, 1.2)	cJ20_J22	1	1.22 (0.99, 1.48)	S00_T99	1	1.24 (0.98, 1.52)	E40_46	0.23	1.26 (0.98, 1.58)
3	1 (0.87, 1.17)	cJ20_J22	1	1.15 (0.96, 1.36)	S00_T99	0.99	1.12 (0.94, 1.33)	G00_99_SY	0.6	1.16 (0.98, 1.35)
4	0.88 (0.8, 1)	cJ20_J22	1	0.91 (0.79, 1.17)	N00_99	1	0.92 (0.79, 1.15)	C00_D48	0.07	0.91 (0.79, 1.1)
5	0.81 (0.67, 0.97)	cJ20_J22	1	0.71 (0.55, 0.88)	K35	0.22	0.71 (0.55, 0.88)	K00_99	0.19	0.7 (0.54, 0.89)
6	0.85 (0.74, 0.97)	cJ20_J22	1	0.76 (0.62, 0.89)	D50_89	0.57	0.78 (0.62, 0.91)	N39	0.52	0.75 (0.61, 0.89)
7	0.92 (0.79, 1.06)	E00_99	0.87	0.94 (0.8, 1.12)	cJ20_J22	0.84	0.87 (0.76, 1.02)	E10_14	0.14	0.87 (0.76, 1.03)
8	1 (0.87, 1.14)	cJ20_J22	0.62	0.98 (0.86, 1.14)	N39	0.36	0.96 (0.84, 1.1)	C00_D48	0.24	0.94 (0.83, 1.07)
9	0.85 (0.74, 0.97)	cJ20_J22	1	1.1 (0.91, 1.33)	P00_99	0.08	1.09 (0.9, 1.3)	D50_89	0.05	1.08 (0.89, 1.31)

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