Ecuador Results

combine estimates

Stacking Estimate (95% CI) SC Estimate (95% CI) Time trend Estimate (95% CI) Time trend (no offset) Estimate (95% CI) STL+PCA Estimate (95% CI)
0 0.92 (0.74, 1.16) 0.89 (0.73, 1.09) 0.92 (0.74, 1.13) 0.99 (0.82, 1.18) 1.03 (0.87, 1.23)
1 1.06 (0.89, 1.29) 1 (0.86, 1.18) 1.13 (0.96, 1.34) 0.86 (0.74, 0.99) 1.04 (0.92, 1.19)
2 0.8 (0.69, 1.14) 1.05 (0.9, 1.2) 1.14 (0.94, 1.36) 0.79 (0.68, 0.91) 0.78 (0.68, 0.89)
3 0.83 (0.72, 1.12) 1 (0.87, 1.17) 0.99 (0.86, 1.14) 0.78 (0.69, 0.88) 0.8 (0.71, 0.9)
4 0.86 (0.72, 0.98) 0.88 (0.8, 1) 0.88 (0.77, 1.01) 0.84 (0.73, 0.98) 0.78 (0.69, 0.88)
5 0.78 (0.6, 0.96) 0.81 (0.67, 0.97) 0.75 (0.62, 0.9) 0.76 (0.62, 0.92) 0.68 (0.57, 0.81)
6 0.85 (0.74, 0.98) 0.85 (0.74, 0.97) 0.73 (0.63, 0.85) 0.72 (0.61, 0.84) 0.76 (0.66, 0.87)
7 0.89 (0.76, 1.05) 0.92 (0.79, 1.06) 0.85 (0.75, 0.97) 0.83 (0.73, 0.95) 0.86 (0.76, 0.98)
8 1 (0.87, 1.14) 1 (0.87, 1.14) 0.92 (0.82, 1.05) 0.89 (0.78, 1.02) 0.96 (0.85, 1.09)
9 0.91 (0.75, 1.14) 0.85 (0.74, 0.97) 0.91 (0.77, 1.08) 0.89 (0.76, 1.04) 1.03 (0.9, 1.17)

Plot of Rate ratios, with size proportional to cross validation weights

Weights for each of the models from cross validation

groups Synthetic Controls Time trend Time trend (no offset) STL+PCA
0 0.328 0.529 0.000 0.142
1 0.319 0.400 0.000 0.281
2 0.242 0.000 0.000 0.758
3 0.293 0.000 0.000 0.707
4 0.697 0.000 0.000 0.303
5 0.743 0.000 0.000 0.257
6 1.000 0.000 0.000 0.000
7 0.621 0.379 0.000 0.000
8 0.999 0.000 0.001 0.000
9 0.562 0.000 0.000 0.438

Inclusion Probabilities

Group Greatest Inclusion Variable Greatest Inclusion Probability Second Greatest Inclusion Variable Second Greatest Inclusion Probability Third Greatest Inclusion Variable Third Greatest Inclusion Probability
0 cJ20_J22 1.0000000 P05_07 0.6003978 P00_99 0.4445432
1 cJ20_J22 1.0000000 P00_99 0.6282074 ach_noj 0.4434059
2 cJ20_J22 1.0000000 S00_T99 1.0000000 E40_46 0.2252282
3 cJ20_J22 1.0000000 S00_T99 0.9873324 G00_99_SY 0.6026361
4 cJ20_J22 0.9999985 N00_99 0.9998963 C00_D48 0.0703611
5 cJ20_J22 1.0000000 ach_noj 0.5017597 K35 0.2158735
6 cJ20_J22 0.9999999 D50_89 0.5709533 N39 0.5186708
7 E00_99 0.8703107 cJ20_J22 0.8351655 ach_noj 0.1475171
8 ach_noj 0.9922184 cJ20_J22 0.6174294 N39 0.3570180
9 cJ20_J22 1.0000000 ach_noj 0.9643429 P00_99 0.0765863

Weight Sensitivity Analysis

Estimate (95% CI) Top Control 1 Inclusion Probability of Control 1 Control 1 Estimate (95% CI) Top Control 2 Inclusion Probability of Control 2 Control 2 Estimate (95% CI) Top Control 3 Inclusion Probability of Control 3 Control 3 Estimate (95% CI)
0 0.89 (0.73, 1.09) cJ20_J22 1 1.18 (0.93, 1.45) P05_07 0.6 1.12 (0.88, 1.38) P00_99 0.44 1.14 (0.91, 1.4)
1 1 (0.86, 1.18) cJ20_J22 1 1.28 (1.08, 1.5) P00_99 0.63 1.42 (1.21, 1.64) E00_99 0.1 1.45 (1.23, 1.67)
2 1.05 (0.9, 1.2) cJ20_J22 1 1.22 (0.99, 1.48) S00_T99 1 1.24 (0.98, 1.52) E40_46 0.23 1.26 (0.98, 1.58)
3 1 (0.87, 1.17) cJ20_J22 1 1.15 (0.96, 1.36) S00_T99 0.99 1.12 (0.94, 1.33) G00_99_SY 0.6 1.16 (0.98, 1.35)
4 0.88 (0.8, 1) cJ20_J22 1 0.91 (0.79, 1.17) N00_99 1 0.92 (0.79, 1.15) C00_D48 0.07 0.91 (0.79, 1.1)
5 0.81 (0.67, 0.97) cJ20_J22 1 0.71 (0.55, 0.88) K35 0.22 0.71 (0.55, 0.88) K00_99 0.19 0.7 (0.54, 0.89)
6 0.85 (0.74, 0.97) cJ20_J22 1 0.76 (0.62, 0.89) D50_89 0.57 0.78 (0.62, 0.91) N39 0.52 0.75 (0.61, 0.89)
7 0.92 (0.79, 1.06) E00_99 0.87 0.94 (0.8, 1.12) cJ20_J22 0.84 0.87 (0.76, 1.02) E10_14 0.14 0.87 (0.76, 1.03)
8 1 (0.87, 1.14) cJ20_J22 0.62 0.98 (0.86, 1.14) N39 0.36 0.96 (0.84, 1.1) C00_D48 0.24 0.94 (0.83, 1.07)
9 0.85 (0.74, 0.97) cJ20_J22 1 1.1 (0.91, 1.33) P00_99 0.08 1.09 (0.9, 1.3) D50_89 0.05 1.08 (0.89, 1.31)

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